More Choice for Buyers as the Fall Market Shifts
September usually brings renewed energy to the Greater Victoria real estate market as summer holidays end and buyers and sellers return to their plans. This year, however, the traditional fall bounce didn't arrive as expected.
After a surprisingly active July and August, sales slowed considerably in September while the number of homes available for sale increased. That combination shifted more negotiating power toward buyers and moved the overall market into buyer’s-market territory for the month.
The change is significant, but perspective is important. One month doesn't establish a long-term trend, and Greater Victoria continues to be made up of many individual micro-markets. Some neighbourhoods and property types remain much more competitive than others.
What September does tell us is that strategy matters more than ever. Buyers have choices, while sellers need to make sure their pricing, presentation and marketing reflect today's market—not the conditions we experienced earlier in the year.
📊 September by the Numbers
🏠 463 Properties Sold
📈 3,811 Active Listings
💰 Average Sale Prices
🏡 Single-Family Homes: $1,268,691
🏘️ Townhomes: $845,780
🏢 Condominiums: $605,399
Average sale prices reflect the properties that actually sold during the month and can fluctuate depending on the mix, location and price range of those sales.
📈 September Market Snapshot
A total of 463 properties sold across the Victoria Real Estate Board region in September.
That represents:
⬇️ 16.4% fewer sales than September 2025
⬇️ 21.7% fewer sales than August 2026
🏡 239 single-family homes sold, down 17.3% year-over-year
🏢 137 condos sold, down 11% year-over-year
At the same time, active inventory climbed to 3,811 listings, an increase of 4.1% from August and 3.2% compared with September 2025.
That combination—fewer sales and more inventory—is what pushed the overall market into buyer’s-market territory in September.
It's also worth remembering where we came from. July and August were unusually active summer months, so some buyers who might normally have purchased in September may simply have made their moves earlier.
The next couple of months should give us a much clearer indication of whether September was a temporary pause or the beginning of a broader shift.
🏠 A Closer Look at the Market
🏡 Single-Family Homes
Detached homes continue to be one of the healthier segments of the Greater Victoria market, but September clearly lost some of the momentum we saw over the summer.
There were 239 single-family home sales, down 17.3% from September of last year.
The average sale price was $1,268,691, compared with $1,312,501 in August. While that's a noticeable month-to-month change, average prices can move depending on the mix of homes sold, so I wouldn't look at one month's number in isolation.
What is more important is the combination of slower sales and increased buyer choice.
Buyers now have more time to compare properties and negotiate, but desirable detached homes that are well maintained, properly presented and priced according to today's market can still attract serious interest.
💡 The takeaway: This isn't a market where every seller needs to dramatically reduce their price. It is a market where buyers are increasingly unwilling to overlook an unrealistic one.
🏢 Condominiums
The condo market continues to provide buyers with some of the greatest selection and negotiating opportunities.
There were 137 condo sales in September, down 11% compared with September 2025.
The average condo sale price was $605,399, compared with $625,363 in August.
With plenty of inventory available, buyers can take their time comparing location, strata fees, building condition, depreciation reports, upcoming expenses and overall value.
Despite the softer sales environment, condo values have remained relatively resilient. That's another reason I wouldn't read too much into a single month's average price movement.
Not every condo market is the same either. A newer unit in a desirable building can face completely different conditions from an older condo competing against numerous similar listings.
💡 The takeaway: Buyers have time and choice. For sellers, that makes competitive pricing and strong presentation essential—a buyer who doesn't see value can simply move on to the next option.
🏘️ Townhomes
Townhomes are the segment I'll be watching particularly closely this fall.
The average townhouse sale price was $845,780 in September, compared with $843,966 in August—essentially holding steady month-over-month.
That's interesting considering the amount of choice buyers currently have in this part of the market.
Townhomes traditionally occupy an attractive middle ground between condominiums and detached homes, particularly for families, downsizers and buyers looking for more space without making the jump to single-family-home pricing.
However, increased inventory means buyers have more options and sellers face more competition.
💡 The takeaway: Townhomes continue to offer an attractive lifestyle and value proposition, but increased competition means sellers can't rely on demand alone. Price and positioning matter.
⚖️ What Does a Buyer's Market Mean?
The term “buyer's market” can sound more dramatic than the reality.
It doesn't mean homes suddenly stop selling, and it doesn't mean prices automatically fall substantially.
It means the relationship between available inventory and buyer demand has shifted, giving purchasers more selection, more time to make decisions and, depending on the property, greater negotiating leverage.
For sellers, it means competing more carefully for the buyers who are currently active.
And because Greater Victoria consists of many different micro-markets, conditions can vary significantly between a detached home in Saanich, a townhouse in Langford, a condo downtown, or a home in Sidney.
✅ For Buyers: Choice Creates Opportunity
For qualified buyers, September's market offers quite a bit to like.
✔️ More properties to choose from
✔️ Less pressure to make rushed decisions
✔️ More opportunity for due diligence
✔️ Potentially stronger negotiating positions
✔️ More ability to compare value between listings
There is one caution: don't confuse having negotiating power with every seller being desperate to sell.
The best properties can still attract strong interest. If you find a home that checks the important boxes and represents good value, trying to perfectly time the bottom of the market can sometimes mean losing the right property.
Rather than trying to predict exactly what prices will do next, the more useful question is whether you've found the right home at a price and monthly payment that comfortably works for you.
✅ For Sellers: The First Few Weeks Matter
September's numbers don't mean buyers have disappeared—463 properties still sold during the month.
But buyers have become increasingly selective.
That's why the initial positioning of a listing is so important. Today's buyer can quickly compare your home against several alternatives.
Successful sellers should focus on:
✔️ Pricing based on today's comparable sales—not yesterday's expectations
✔️ Preparing the home to show at its best
✔️ Professional photography and presentation
✔️ Marketing that goes beyond simply appearing on MLS®
✔️ Closely monitoring showings and buyer feedback
✔️ Responding when the market provides clear feedback
Starting substantially above market value with the intention of “leaving room to negotiate” can work against a seller when buyers have this much choice.
The goal isn't simply to put your home on the market. It's to position it so buyers see the value compared with everything else available.
🔮 Looking Ahead: Was September a Pause or a Turning Point?
That's the big question coming out of September.
September looked very different from July and August. Sales fell, inventory increased and buyers gained leverage.
But one month isn't enough to call a long-term change in direction.
October should tell us considerably more.
If sales recover and inventory begins its normal seasonal decline toward winter, September may ultimately look like a pause following an unusually active summer.
If sales remain subdued while inventory stays elevated, particularly among condos and townhomes, then we may be seeing a more meaningful shift in market conditions.
For sellers, there can also be opportunity as we move deeper into fall. Inventory normally begins declining toward winter as homes sell and some unsuccessful listings come off the market. Serious buyers don't necessarily disappear simply because the weather changes, and a well-positioned property may face less competition.
Either way, this is exactly why looking at current, local data matters more than broad headlines.
📍 There Isn't Just One Greater Victoria Market
Perhaps the most important message this month is that the overall statistics don't tell the whole story.
A single-family home in a neighbourhood with very little inventory can experience completely different conditions from a condo or townhouse competing against numerous similar listings.
The same is true across Victoria, Saanich, Langford, Colwood, View Royal, Sidney, Central Saanich and the surrounding communities.
That's why the question isn't simply:
“Is it a buyer's or seller's market?”
A much more useful question is:
“What's happening with properties like mine—or the type of home I want to buy—in the area I'm interested in?”
That's where the numbers become truly useful.
📞 Thinking About Your Next Move?
Whether you're considering buying, selling, or simply wondering how September's changing market affects the value of your home, I'd be happy to look at your specific neighbourhood, property type and price range.
No pressure—just current information and a strategy based on your goals.
📞 250-893-9185
Thank you for continuing to follow my monthly market updates. If you know someone who's considering buying or selling, referrals from past clients, friends and family are always greatly appreciated.
Kelly Grymaloski
REALTOR® | Coldwell Banker Oceanside
Serving Victoria, Saanich, Langford, Colwood, View Royal, Sidney, Central Saanich and surrounding communities.
