A Fall Rebound Brings Greater Victoria Back Into Balance
October brought some welcome activity back to the Greater Victoria real estate market. After a surprisingly quiet September, sales rebounded, inventory declined, and the overall market returned to more balanced conditions.
In September, we saw the market briefly shift into buyer's-market territory for the first time in years. October's results are an important reminder that one month doesn't necessarily establish a trend.
While sales were still below last October, the improvement from September was encouraging. Single-family homes and townhomes showed renewed activity, while condominiums continued to face greater challenges.
Interestingly, while sales increased by nearly 24% from September, average sale prices declined across all three major property types. It's another reminder that stronger sales activity doesn't necessarily mean prices are rising, particularly when buyers still have plenty of choice.
The message this month? Buyers are active, but they're selective. Sellers have opportunities, but pricing and presentation continue to make all the difference.
📊 October by the Numbers
🏠 573 Properties Sold
📈 3,594 Active Listings
🏡 1,138 New Listings
💰 Average Sale Prices
🏡 Single-Family Homes: $1,247,475
🏘️ Townhomes: $833,003
🏢 Condominiums: $568,389
Average sale prices reflect the properties that actually sold during the month and can fluctuate depending on the mix, location and price range of those sales.
📈 October Market Snapshot
According to the Victoria Real Estate Board, 573 properties sold in October, representing:
⬆️ 23.8% more sales than September 2026
⬇️ 7.1% fewer sales than October 2025
🏡 303 single-family homes sold, down 13.4% year-over-year
🏢 135 condos sold, down 15.1% year-over-year
Meanwhile, active inventory declined to 3,594 listings, a decrease of 5.7% from September, although inventory remains 5% higher than October of last year.
October sales were also very close to the previous five-year average of 581 sales, suggesting the market is functioning at a relatively normal pace despite the ups and downs we've experienced throughout 2026.
Perhaps the most encouraging part of October's report is that the market returned to balanced conditions after September's brief shift toward buyers.
However, that doesn't mean every property type or neighbourhood is experiencing the same conditions.
🏠 A Closer Look at the Market
🏡 Single-Family Homes
Single-family homes showed encouraging signs of renewed activity in October.
There were 303 detached-home sales, compared with 239 in September. That's a substantial improvement and suggests buyers who were more cautious in September returned to the market.
The average sale price was $1,247,475, compared with $1,268,691 in September, a decrease of approximately 1.7%.
While sales activity improved considerably, the lower average price reminds us that stronger sales don't necessarily translate into higher prices. The mix of properties sold can also influence monthly averages, so I wouldn't interpret one month's change as a direct decline in every home's value.
Despite the increase in sales, activity remained 13.4% below October of last year. Buyers continue to have more time to evaluate properties, and many are paying close attention to condition, location and overall value.
At the same time, declining inventory means there are fewer homes competing for buyers' attention as we move toward winter.
Well-maintained homes in desirable neighbourhoods can still attract serious interest, particularly when they are priced realistically from the beginning.
💡 The takeaway: Detached homes continue to demonstrate healthy underlying demand. For sellers, October's improvement is encouraging, but the right asking price and professional presentation remain essential.
🏢 Condominiums
The condominium market continues to tell a different story.
There were 135 condo sales in October, down 15.1% compared with October 2025 and slightly below September's 137 sales.
The average condo sale price was $568,389, compared with $603,399 in September, a decrease of approximately 5.8%.
This was the largest month-over-month decline in average sale price among the three major property types.
Although average prices can fluctuate depending on which properties sell, the change is worth watching alongside slower condo sales and elevated inventory.
While the broader market experienced a rebound, condo activity remained relatively subdued.
Buyers continue to have plenty of selection, and with several comparable properties often available, there's generally less urgency to make a decision.
Today's condo buyers are looking beyond the asking price. Strata fees, depreciation reports, contingency reserve funds, upcoming maintenance and the overall financial health of the building can all influence purchasing decisions.
The additional inventory also means sellers need to understand exactly how their property compares with other available units.
💡 The takeaway: Condos remain one of the more challenging segments for sellers, but that also creates opportunities for buyers who are prepared to do their homework and negotiate.
For sellers, competitive pricing, strong presentation and highlighting the property's unique advantages are more important than ever.
🏘️ Townhomes
Townhomes were one of the more interesting parts of the October market.
After several months of softer activity, sales improved considerably, suggesting buyers are recognizing opportunities in this segment.
The average townhouse sale price was $833,003, compared with $845,780 in September, a decrease of approximately 1.5%.
Despite improved sales activity, average prices softened slightly. This suggests that buyers continue to have negotiating opportunities, particularly where several similar townhomes are competing for attention.
Townhomes continue to appeal to families, first-time move-up buyers and downsizers who want more space without the higher price of a detached home.
However, inventory remains elevated compared with last year, giving buyers considerably more choice.
This is particularly noticeable in neighbourhoods with newer developments, where several similar townhomes may be competing for the same buyers.
When properties offer comparable layouts, locations and features, even relatively small differences in price and presentation can influence which home sells first.
💡 The takeaway: Stronger sales are encouraging, but townhome sellers still face considerable competition.
For buyers, the combination of selection and improving activity makes townhomes an interesting option heading into winter.
🏦 Interest Rates: A New Consideration for Buyers & Homeowners
Another important factor influencing the market is uncertainty around interest rates.
Changes in the Bank of Canada's policy rate can affect borrowing costs, particularly for homeowners with variable-rate mortgages and buyers considering financing options.
Fixed mortgage rates, however, are influenced more directly by bond markets and expectations about future economic conditions, so they don't necessarily move in step with the Bank's policy rate.
What does this mean for buyers?
If you're considering purchasing a home, this is a good time to:
✔️ Review your mortgage pre-approval
✔️ Speak with a mortgage professional about your options
✔️ Consider securing a rate hold where available
✔️ Understand how higher borrowing costs could affect your monthly payments
✔️ Focus on a purchase price that comfortably fits your budget
There's an interesting balance in today's market. Buyers may have more room to negotiate on price, but potential changes in financing costs could offset some of those savings.
Waiting for a lower purchase price doesn't necessarily mean the overall cost of homeownership will be lower.
For homeowners approaching a mortgage renewal, reviewing your budget and understanding different interest-rate scenarios can help avoid surprises.
⚖️ What This Means for Buyers & Sellers
✅ For Buyers: Opportunity Without the Pressure
October's return to a balanced market doesn't mean buyers have lost their negotiating power.
There is still a healthy selection of properties available, particularly among condos and townhomes.
That gives buyers opportunities to:
✔️ Compare properties carefully
✔️ Negotiate when the circumstances support it
✔️ Complete inspections and due diligence
✔️ Review strata documents and upcoming expenses
✔️ Make decisions based on long-term needs rather than short-term headlines
However, one thing I always remind buyers is that the right home doesn't necessarily wait for the perfect market.
If you find a property that meets your needs, is priced appropriately and fits comfortably within your budget, that may be a better opportunity than trying to predict exactly what prices or interest rates will do next.
✅ For Sellers: Buyers Are Active, But Selective
October demonstrated that buyers haven't disappeared.
With 573 properties sold, there are still plenty of people making moves across Greater Victoria.
The difference is that today's buyers have choices.
A home that is priced too high or doesn't show well can easily be overlooked in favour of competing listings.
That's why I continue to emphasize the importance of:
✔️ Pricing based on current comparable sales
✔️ Preparing the home to show at its best
✔️ Professional photography and marketing
✔️ Understanding competing listings
✔️ Monitoring showing activity and buyer feedback
✔️ Making timely adjustments when necessary
The first few weeks on the market are particularly important. That's when a listing is fresh and has the greatest opportunity to capture the attention of active buyers.
Starting too high and relying on a series of price reductions can make the selling process longer and more frustrating than it needs to be.
My goal is always to position a property correctly from the beginning so it stands out for the right reasons.
🔮 Looking Ahead: What Can We Expect as Winter Approaches?
October's results were encouraging, particularly after September's unexpected slowdown.
Sales improved, inventory declined, and the broader market returned to balanced conditions.
However, the recovery wasn't equal across property types.
Single-family homes continue to show relatively healthy demand, townhome activity has improved, and condos remain the most challenging segment.
At the same time, the decline in average sale prices across all three property types is worth watching as we head toward the end of the year.
As we move toward winter, inventory will typically continue to decline as some homes sell and others are taken off the market.
For buyers, that could mean fewer properties to choose from, although those remaining on the market may offer negotiating opportunities.
For sellers, fewer competing listings can sometimes work in their favour, especially when their property is priced and presented well.
Interest rates and economic uncertainty will also play an important role in shaping buyer confidence as we head toward 2027.
The important thing to remember is that a balanced regional market doesn't mean every neighbourhood or property type is balanced.
📍 There Isn't Just One Greater Victoria Market
One of the biggest lessons from October is how quickly market conditions can change.
September favoured buyers. October returned to balance.
But those broad statistics don't necessarily describe what's happening in your particular neighbourhood.
A detached home in Saanich, a downtown Victoria condo, a townhouse in Langford or a home in Sidney can each experience very different levels of demand and competition.
That's why I believe the most useful question isn't simply:
“Is it a buyer's or seller's market?”
It's:
“What's happening with properties like mine—or the type of home I want to buy—in the neighbourhood I'm interested in?”
Understanding those local differences is what helps us build the right strategy.
📞 Thinking About Your Next Move?
Whether you're considering buying, selling, downsizing or simply wondering what your home may be worth in today's market, I'd be happy to help you understand your options.
Every property and every situation is unique. Together, we can look at current market conditions and build a strategy that works for your goals.
No pressure—just straightforward advice and local market knowledge.
📞 250-893-9185
Thank you for continuing to follow my monthly market updates. I truly appreciate your support, and if you know someone who may be considering buying or selling, your referrals are always greatly appreciated.
Wishing you a wonderful November as we head toward the holiday season! 🍂🏡
Kelly Grymaloski
REALTOR® | Coldwell Banker Oceanside
Serving Victoria, Saanich, Langford, Colwood, View Royal, Sidney, Central Saanich and surrounding communities.
